{"id":15035,"date":"2025-02-13T02:37:12","date_gmt":"2025-02-13T01:37:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.quieryavenir.fr\/blog\/?p=15035"},"modified":"2025-02-12T06:39:02","modified_gmt":"2025-02-12T05:39:02","slug":"decroissance-et-ia-est-ce-compatible","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.quieryavenir.fr\/blog\/2025\/02\/13\/decroissance-et-ia-est-ce-compatible\/","title":{"rendered":"D\u00e9croissance et IA, est-ce compatible ?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-15032 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.quieryavenir.fr\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/10conseilsPlastique-08-300x300.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"399\" height=\"399\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.quieryavenir.fr\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/10conseilsPlastique-08-300x300.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.quieryavenir.fr\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/10conseilsPlastique-08.jpg 501w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 399px) 100vw, 399px\" \/><\/p>\n<h1 style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">Commentaire ap<\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">r\u00e8s<\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"> lecture d<\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">u premier article<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/h1>\n<p><!--more--><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">La premi\u00e8re partie se termine par\u00a0:<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><i><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">\u00ab\u00a0Mais le fait est que <\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><b>les ressources \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques fossiles dont nous disposons sont limit\u00e9es.\u00a0<\/b><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">Et le temps dont nous disposons l\u2019est aussi.\u00a0\u00bb<\/span><\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">La deuxi\u00e8me partie en conclut que, bien que les ressources fossiles soient limit\u00e9es, il faut r\u00e9duire notre d\u00e9pendance fran\u00e7aise en extrayant du lithium\u00a0!!! <\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">Il faut donc signer la p\u00e9tition.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">E<\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">n r\u00e9sum\u00e9, l\u2019IA va demander beaucoup d\u2019\u00e9nergies, beaucoup d\u2019eau, beaucoup de \u2026 et beaucoup d\u2019extractions\u00a0; l\u2019eau va se rar\u00e9fier, les extractions vont bient\u00f4t se terminer (faute de mat\u00e9riaux)\u00a0; donc, il faut extraire du lithium en France\u00a0!!! Bien entendu, ce sera une extraction propre\u00a0&#8211; pas comme en RdC.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">O\u00f9 est pass\u00e9 le rapport entre d\u00e9croissance et IA\u00a0?<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">On sent que <\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">l\u2019ensemble de l\u2019article <\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">est un plaidoyer pro-Jancovici pour le nucl\u00e9aire\u00a0; comme par hasard, on a besoin du lithium dans la fusion nucl\u00e9aire\u00a0!!!<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">Et on fait <\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">aussi <\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">croire \u2013 sans vraiment le dire \u2013 que le nucl\u00e9aire est une technologie verte\u00a0!!! <\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">Il faut rappeler les exploits de l\u2019EPR de Flamanville\u00a0: il devait \u00eatre mis en service en 2012 et ne devait co\u00fbter que 3 milliards d\u2019euros. Il est loin, en 2025, d\u2019\u00eatre \u00e0 son plein r\u00e9gime (le sera-t-il un jour ?) et co\u00fbte d\u00e9j\u00e0, d\u2019apr\u00e8s la Cour des comptes, 24 milliards. Par ailleurs, les EPR2 ne sont que des projets\u00a0: il va manquer de l\u2019argent pour les financer et ils ne seront op\u00e9rationnels \u2013 si tout se passe bien \u2013 qu\u2019en 2040\u00a0!<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">Ce n\u2019est pas avec ce genre de production que l\u2019on va s\u2019en sortir pour produire de l\u2019\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 pour le num\u00e9rique (IA, data-center \u2026) tellement gourmand\u00a0! On est dans une impasse au niveau fran\u00e7ais.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">** **<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">Notre monde a quelque chose d\u2019un peu paradoxal. <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">Si on \u00e9coute les ing\u00e9nieurs informatique, ils nous expliquent que les machines sont sur le point de prendre le pouvoir notamment gr\u00e2ce au d\u00e9ploiement de <\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><b>l\u2019Intelligence Artificielle<\/b><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">\u00a0ou <\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><b>IA<\/b><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">La rencontre entre les <\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><b>fabricants de robots<\/b><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">\u00a0et de <\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><b>logiciels intelligents<\/b><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">, de type chatGPT pourrait bouleverser nos soci\u00e9t\u00e9s. <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">Gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 l\u2019IA, on est aujourd\u2019hui capable de produire des : <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">robots-soignants, <\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">robots-m\u00e9decins ou robots-infirmi\u00e8res, <\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">robots gar\u00e7on de caf\u00e9, <\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">robots femmes de m\u00e9nage, <\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">robots partenaires de vie. <\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">Tout cela en plus des fonctions IA qui existent d\u00e9j\u00e0 sur les tablettes comme la r\u00e9daction, la traduction, le conseil juridique, comptable ou m\u00eame l\u2019architecture ! <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">Tous les m\u00e9tiers sont en passe d\u2019\u00eatre remplac\u00e9s ou en tant cas seraient rempla\u00e7ables. <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">Car cela supposerait tout de m\u00eame un d\u00e9ploiement massif de machines dans le monde. <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">Or, lorsque l\u2019on \u00e9coute, cette fois, les ing\u00e9nieurs du climat, comme <\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><b>Jean Marc Jancovici<\/b><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">, ils nous expliquent que le monde est d\u00e9j\u00e0 satur\u00e9 de machines.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">Pour lui, l\u2019avenir de l\u2019humanit\u00e9 passe par la <\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><b>d\u00e9croissance subie ou voulue<\/b><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">. <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">Il n\u2019est pas seul \u00e0 penser cela.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">D\u2019autres experts sont arriv\u00e9s \u00e0 la m\u00eame conclusion m\u00eame s\u2019ils n\u2019analysent pas toujours les m\u00eames donn\u00e9es. <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">Par exemple, <\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><b>Arthur Keller<\/b><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">\u00a0s&rsquo;int\u00e9resse aux <\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><b>risques syst\u00e9miques<\/b><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">\u00a0et consid\u00e8re que les activit\u00e9s humaines d\u2019aujourd\u2019hui transforment la <\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><b>nature en d\u00e9chets.<\/b><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><b>Aurore St\u00e9phant<\/b><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">, ing\u00e9nieure \u00e9galement, constate que les <\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><b>r\u00e9serves de m\u00e9taux s\u2019\u00e9puisent<\/b><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">\u00a0et que les quantit\u00e9s d\u2019\u00e9nergie et d\u2019investissements n\u00e9cessaires \u00e0 l\u2019extraction ne cessent d\u2019augmenter.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">L\u2019activit\u00e9 mini\u00e8re, cens\u00e9e remplacer le p\u00e9trole pour faciliter les \u00e9nergies renouvelables, n\u2019a rien de durable. <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">Peut-on r\u00e9ellement imaginer une <\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><b>r\u00e9volution de l\u2019IA sans m\u00e9taux ?<\/b><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">Jean-Marc Jancovici pronostique, quant \u00e0 lui, <\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><b>la fin<\/b><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">\u00a0prochaine des <\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><b>\u00e9nergies fossiles<\/b><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><b>Une \u00e9conomie bas\u00e9e sur les \u00e9nergies fossiles <\/b><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">D\u2019apr\u00e8s Carbone 4, soci\u00e9t\u00e9 de conseil que dirige Jean-Marc Jancovici, les \u00e9nergies fossiles repr\u00e9sentaient plus de <\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><b>80% de la consommation mondiale d\u2019\u00e9nergie en 2021.<\/b><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">Et si la consommation actuelle se maintient, les trois grandes ressources fossiles que sont le charbon, le p\u00e9trole et le gaz se trouveraient rapidement d\u00e9pl\u00e9t\u00e9es (en diminution). Les r\u00e9serves seraient vides. <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">Si la consommation actuelle se maintient et qu\u2019aucune nouvelle r\u00e9serve d\u2019\u00e9nergie fossile n\u2019est d\u00e9couverte, il resterait pour l\u2019humanit\u00e9 : <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><b>139 ans de charbon<\/b><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">\u00a0;<\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><b>54 ans de p\u00e9trole<\/b><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">\u00a0;<\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><b>49 ans de gaz.<\/b><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">Le pic de p\u00e9trole conventionnel aurait \u00e9t\u00e9 atteint dans les ann\u00e9es 2000, celui du gaz devrait survenir avant les ann\u00e9es 2030 et celui du charbon autour de 2050.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">Cette rar\u00e9faction des \u00e9nergies fossiles devrait entra\u00eener un ralentissement des \u00e9changes puisque les pays producteurs finiront par privil\u00e9gier leurs propres populations au d\u00e9triment des exportations. <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">Ces chiffres ne sont pas absolus. <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">Les techniques d\u2019extraction peuvent encore s\u2019am\u00e9liorer. <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">Mais le fait est que <\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><b>les ressources \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques fossiles dont nous disposons sont limit\u00e9es. <\/b><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">Et le temps dont nous disposons l\u2019est aussi.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000080;\"><u><a href=\"https:\/\/view.mail1.leslignesbougent.org\/?qs=3300da8e8acb1ef4d3985df139a721410937b191fd9aec8fd422ba37848acfa3ba8d53882af50fad79efd909d34f72d2fd613611b2c1032cee0211cdd4b6da0ab2b0d0837872a2fc69f8bf437bc47809\"><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><span lang=\"fr-FR\">https:\/\/view.mail1.leslignesbougent.org\/?qs=3300da8e8acb1ef4<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/u><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">** **<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a name=\"h.crrkmz1iy4y0\"><\/a> <span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><b>Pour une France leader du lithium : Saisissons cette chance pour notre avenir \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique<\/b><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">La demande mondiale pour\u00a0le lithium\u00a0explose et c\u2019est un m\u00e9tal cl\u00e9 pour les technologies vertes.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u00a0<span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">La Chine domine ce march\u00e9 strat\u00e9gique, mais la France a une occasion unique\u00a0car elle peut exploiter ses propres gisements de lithium.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">Il est temps de r\u00e9duire <\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><b>notre d\u00e9pendance<\/b><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"> ! <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">Conclusion de cette partie\u00a0: il faut signer une p\u00e9tition\u00a0!!!!<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">** **<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">Une histoire de machines !<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">Dans ses allocutions, Jean-Marc Jancovici aime comparer la <\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><b>force des machines<\/b><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">\u00a0\u00e0 la <\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><b>force humaine.<\/b><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">Il explique que la croissance \u00e9conomique est essentiellement li\u00e9e \u00e0 l\u2019apparition des machines qui ont donn\u00e9 aux humains des <\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><b>capacit\u00e9s d\u2019extraction, de transformation et de production sans pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent.<\/b><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">Cette productivit\u00e9 d\u00e9cupl\u00e9e met une pression consid\u00e9rable sur les ressources naturelles disponibles. \u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">Et la <\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><b>pollution<\/b><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">\u00a0qu\u2019elle g\u00e9n\u00e8re accentue encore cette pression sur l\u2019environnement et ces ressources. <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">Jean-Marc Jancovici explique que l&rsquo;\u00e9conomie d\u2019aujourd\u2019hui, c\u2019est essentiellement un <\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><b>immense parc de machines qui tournent 24h sur 24<\/b><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">\u00a0gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 de l\u2019\u00e9nergie fossile efficace et peu ch\u00e8re. <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">Pour aider le public \u00e0 prendre la mesure des quantit\u00e9s folles d\u2019\u00e9nergie que l\u2019on utilise, l\u2019ing\u00e9nieur utilise une m\u00e9taphore. <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">Il imagine des esclaves fictifs qui p\u00e9daleraient pour produire de l\u2019\u00e9nergie que l\u2019on mettrait \u00e0 notre service. <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">Ainsi il faudrait\u00a0: <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><b>50 cyclistes<\/b><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">\u00a0pour faire lever un <\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><b>ascenseur<\/b><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">\u00a0;<\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><b>10 cyclistes<\/b><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">\u00a0pour faire fonctionner un <\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><b>aspirateur<\/b><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">\u00a0ou une <\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><b>machine \u00e0 laver<\/b><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">\u00a0;<\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><b>600 cyclistes<\/b><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">\u00a0pour d\u00e9marrer un <\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><b>tracteur<\/b><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">\u00a0;<\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><b>10 000 cyclistes<\/b><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">\u00a0pour faire tourner un <\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><b>engin de travaux publics<\/b><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">. <\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">Certaines machines, comme les satellites, en consomment encore bien davantage. <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">En tout, la puissance moyenne des machines d\u00e9multiplierait la force musculaire humaine par 100. <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">Mais combien de cyclistes faudrait-il pour faire fonctionner l\u2019IA ? <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><b>Les alternatives sont-elles cr\u00e9dibles ? <\/b><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">Pour r\u00e9pondre au d\u00e9fi \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique et \u00e0 la rar\u00e9faction des \u00e9nergies fossiles, il existe aujourd\u2019hui cinq r\u00e9ponses possible : <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><b>le nucl\u00e9aire ;<\/b><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">le solaire ;<\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">l\u2019hydraulique ;<\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">l\u2019\u00e9olien ;<\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">la g\u00e9othermie.<\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">Mais toutes ces sources d\u2019\u00e9nergies sont soumises \u00e0 des contraintes que l\u2019on ne conna\u00eet pas avec les \u00e9nergies fossiles. <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">Dans de nombreux pays comme la France, l\u2019\u00e9nergie hydraulique est d\u00e9j\u00e0 bien exploit\u00e9e. <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">Par ailleurs, par rapport au p\u00e9trole, l\u2019\u00e9olien reste peu efficace et intermittent.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">La g\u00e9othermie n\u2019est vraiment une alternative que sur certains sites comme le Rift est-africain ou l\u2019Islande. <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">Il faut du temps, pour construire des r\u00e9acteurs nucl\u00e9aires compatibles avec les normes de s\u00e9curit\u00e9 actuelles. <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">Enfin, les panneaux solaires ne fonctionnent pas la nuit. <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">Si l\u2019on devait supprimer demain, les \u00e9nergies fossiles et qu\u2019il fallait reposer sur ces \u00e9nergies, nous serions bien emb\u00eat\u00e9s. <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">Dans un premier temps, le nucl\u00e9aire et les \u00e9nergies renouvelables suffiraient peut-\u00eatre pour maintenir des activit\u00e9s essentielles comme la production agricole et l\u2019\u00e9lectrification des villes. <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">Mais le transport et le chauffage ne seraient probablement pas assur\u00e9s. <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">On passerait alors par une meilleure isolation des habitations et une r\u00e9duction drastique du transport des personnes et des marchandises et des sources locales d\u2019\u00e9nergies pour tous les lieux isol\u00e9s. <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><b>Et l\u2019IA alors ? <\/b><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">Comment, dans un tel sc\u00e9nario, pourrait-on imaginer que l\u2019IA devienne la prochaine grande r\u00e9volution industrielle ? <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><b>Car l\u2019\u00e9conomie num\u00e9rique repr\u00e9sente d\u00e9j\u00e0 3 \u00e0 4% des \u00e9missions de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre.<\/b><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">Et l\u2019IA fonctionne gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 des <\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><b>immenses ordinateurs capables<\/b><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">\u00a0de stocker d\u2019improbables quantit\u00e9 de donn\u00e9es. <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><b>Ces serveurs<\/b><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">\u00a0et leurs sauvegardes <\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><b>demandent de plus en plus d\u2019\u00e9nergie.<\/b><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">Les experts estiment qu\u2019une <\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><b>recherche avec l\u2019aide de l\u2019IA consomme d\u00e9j\u00e0 10 fois plus d\u2019\u00e9nergie qu\u2019une recherche Google classique.<\/b><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">Or la consommation d\u2019\u00e9nergie de <\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><b>Google,<\/b><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">\u00a0aux Etats-Unis, est d\u00e9j\u00e0 pass\u00e9e de de 18 TWh en 2021 \u00e0 24 TW\/h en 2023. <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">C\u2019est \u00e0 peine moins que la <\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><b>production mensuelle d\u2019EDF<\/b><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">\u00a0en 2024 (autour de 28 TW\/h).<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">Et Google s\u2019est d\u00e9j\u00e0 dot\u00e9 sur ses propres sites de 7 mini-r\u00e9acteurs nucl\u00e9aires ! Ce n\u2019est que le d\u00e9but !<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">Est-il vraiment possible d\u2019envisager une r\u00e9volution de l\u2019IA sans \u00e9nergies fossiles ? <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">Les plus optimistes diront peut-\u00eatre que justement l\u2019IA nous aidera \u00e0 optimiser nos syst\u00e8mes pour les rendre plus efficients. <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">D\u2019autres, plus pessimistes, craindront peut-\u00eatre une intervention d\u2019une IA \u00e9mancip\u00e9e du contr\u00f4le humain ? <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">Dans une telle hypoth\u00e8se, quelles seraient les orientations choisies par l\u2019IA ? Voudra t\u2019elle, par exemple, s\u2019accaparer toutes les sources d\u2019\u00e9nergies disponibles pour continuer \u00e0 survivre ? <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: Comic Sans MS, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">Je n\u2019ai pas demand\u00e9 son avis \u00e0 ChatGPT ! <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Commentaire apr\u00e8s lecture du premier article<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-15035","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-non-classe"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.quieryavenir.fr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15035","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.quieryavenir.fr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.quieryavenir.fr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.quieryavenir.fr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.quieryavenir.fr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=15035"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.quieryavenir.fr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15035\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":15036,"href":"https:\/\/www.quieryavenir.fr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15035\/revisions\/15036"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.quieryavenir.fr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=15035"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.quieryavenir.fr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=15035"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.quieryavenir.fr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=15035"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}